August 12, 2022

Global oil market 2020

EIA estimates global petroleum and liquid fuels consumption. Averaged 94.4 million b/d within the half-moon of 2020, a decline of 5.6 million b/d from an equivalent period in 2019.

Brent petroleum prices averaged $32/bbl in March, a decrease of $24/bbl. From the typical in February and therefore the lowest monthly average since January 2016. EIA forecasts Brent petroleum prices will average $33/bbl in 2020, $10/bbl less than in last month’s STEO. And down from a mean of $64/bbl in 2019. Average Brent prices will rise to a mean of $46/bbl in 2021, $10/bbl less than forecast last month. As a return to declining global oil inventories puts upward pressure on prices.

Global oil market

EIA expects global petroleum and liquid fuels demand will decrease by 5.2 million b/d. In 2020 from a mean of 100.7 million b/d last year before increasing by 6.4 million b/d in 2021. Lower global oil demand growth for 2020 reflects growing evidence of serious disruptions. To global economic activity alongside reduced expected travel globally due to COVID-19.

Global liquid fuel inventories will grow by a mean of three .9 million b/d in 2020. After falling by about 200,000 b/d in 2019, EIA forecasts. Inventory builds are going. To be largest within the half of 2020, rising at a rate of 5.7 million b/d within the half-moon and increasing to builds of 11.4 million b/d within the second quarter as a result of widespread travel limitations and sharp reductions in economic activity.

Firmer demand growth because the global economy begins to recover and slower supply growth will contribute to global oil inventory draws beginning within the fourth quarter of 2020. EIA expects global liquid fuel inventories will decline by 1.7 million b/d in 2021.

US dry gas production set a record in 2019, averaging 92.2 bcf/d. EIA forecasts dry gas production will average 91.7 bcf/d in 2020, with monthly production falling from an estimated 94.4 bcf/d in March to 87.5 bcf/d in December. gas production declines the foremost within the Appalachian and Permian regions.

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